Interview: Economist predicts supportive measures will lead to Chinese economy bottoming out

Tourists select souvenirs at a gift shop at the Fuzi (Confucius) Temple scenic area in Nanjing, east China's Jiangsu Province, Aug. 18, 2023. (Xinhua/Li Bo)

BEIJING, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) -- China's supportive measures, including both monetary and fiscal policies, have helped the economy to be bottoming out, said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

"There is little doubt that China will achieve its around-five-percent growth target for the full year of 2023," Zhou said in an interview with Xinhua.

Despite challenges both at home and aboard, he said China's economic outlook has improved, with the latest economic indicators all surpassing market expectations.

The country's economy expanded 5.2 percent in the first three quarters of this year, with indicators ranging from industrial production and retail sales to an improvement in residents' income, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

After seasonal adjustment, the economy climbed 1.3 percent from the previous quarter in the third quarter, up from 0.5 percent in the second quarter, the NBS data revealed, which Zhou believes illustrates improving economic momentum.

Retail sales rose 5.5 percent year on year in September, up from 4.6 percent in August, which is "a real upside surprise given the widespread concerns over domestic consumption," he said.

The country has unveiled a slew of pro-growth measures, including those aimed at supporting consumption, the private economy and the real estate market as well as addressing local government debt risks, which Zhou said have been targeted and effective in handling challenges facing the economy.

To consolidate economic recovery, the central bank has cut the financial institutions' reserve requirement ratio twice this year, by 0.5 percentage points in total. It is also likely to release over one trillion yuan (about 139.3 billion U.S. dollars) in medium and long-term liquidity.

With the support of these policies, "we expect the economy to bottom out and potentially touch the bottom in the third quarter or the fourth quarter of this year," Zhou said.

He said the effects of some policies may take a bit longer to materialize, and more policy support might be expected in the real estate sector.

The country still has ample policy space and options, and will take actions when necessary if there are challenges greater than expected, he said.